stv.vote: South Ayrshire, Scotland / South Ayrshire

stv.vote // South Ayrshire, Scotland Ayr East

The South Ayrshire, Scotland May 2022 was held on May 5, 2022. 3 seats were filled using Single Transferable Vote from 9 candidates over 8 rounds.

In STV, candidates who reach the quota (1,235 votes) are elected. Surplus votes above the quota are transferred to voters' next preferences. When no candidate reaches the quota, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and their votes are transferred.

Elected candidates:

Chris Cullen
Mary Kilpatrick
Brian McGinley

Votes needed to win: 1,235 votes $\left\lfloor \frac{4,936}{3 + 1} \right\rfloor + 1$

STV Rounds

This Sankey diagram shows the votes of each remaining candidate at each round, as well as the breakdown of votes transferred when each candidate was elected (surplus transfers) or eliminated.

Note that the tabulation (but not the winner) may differ from the official count. You can read more about why this is.

Candidate Clustering

This visualization shows candidates positioned based on second-choice transfers. Candidates whose voters frequently rank each other appear closer together, forming natural "clusters" or voting blocs.

Distance is based on the First Alternate table below — if voters who rank candidate A first often rank candidate B second (and vice versa), they'll appear close together. In STV, proportional representation means winners should be distributed across different clusters, representing diverse voter preferences.

Circle size indicates first-round vote share. Green circles are elected candidates. Hover over candidates to see their top second-choice transfers.

Pairwise Preferences

For every pair of candidates, this table shows the fraction of voters who preferred one to the other. A preference means that either a voter ranks a candidate ahead of the other, or ranks one candidate but does not list the other. Ballots which rank neither candidate are not counted towards the percent counts.

Note: In multi-seat STV elections, pairwise preferences show overall voter sentiment but don't directly determine outcomes, since votes transfer through multiple elimination and surplus rounds.

	Less-preferred Candidate
Preferred Candidate		Mary Kilpatrick	Brian McGinley	Chris Cullen	Ian Douglas	Alan Lamont	Chic Brodie	Andrew Bryden	David John Ramsay	Deirdre Kennedy
	Mary Kilpatrick	0%	48.2%	44.5%	45.7%	63.4%	63.8%	61.2%	66.3%	66%
	Brian McGinley	51.8%	0%	42.3%	44.2%	52.6%	68.5%	65.8%	72.4%	73.8%
	Chris Cullen	55.5%	57.7%	0%	68.2%	56.4%	72%	69.1%	72.9%	73.3%
	Ian Douglas	54.3%	55.8%	31.8%	0%	55.1%	70.5%	67.3%	72%	71.9%
	Alan Lamont	36.6%	47.4%	43.6%	44.9%	0%	62.9%	60.1%	65.3%	64.5%
	Chic Brodie	36.2%	31.5%	28%	29.5%	37.1%	0%	49.5%	58.1%	52%
	Andrew Bryden	38.8%	34.2%	30.9%	32.7%	39.9%	50.5%	0%	64.3%	56.2%
	David John Ramsay	33.7%	27.6%	27.1%	28%	34.7%	41.9%	35.7%	0%	48%
	Deirdre Kennedy	34%	26.2%	26.7%	28.1%	35.5%	48%	43.8%	52%	0%

First Alternate

For every pair of candidates, this table shows the fraction of voters who ranked one candidate first ranked the other candidate second.

	Second Choice
First Choice		Mary Kilpatrick	Brian McGinley	Chris Cullen	Ian Douglas	Alan Lamont	Chic Brodie	Andrew Bryden	David John Ramsay	Deirdre Kennedy	Exhausted
	Mary Kilpatrick	0%	2.1%	0.4%	0.5%	88.6%	1.1%	1.4%	0.6%	2.1%	3.1%
	Brian McGinley	6.4%	0%	10.9%	9.7%	8.1%	8%	9.1%	6.8%	15.8%	25.2%
	Chris Cullen	0.9%	4.3%	0%	85.1%	0.4%	1%	1.5%	0.7%	1%	5.1%
	Ian Douglas	1.3%	5.8%	82.9%	0%	0.9%	0.9%	2.2%	0%	1.6%	4.5%
	Alan Lamont	87.7%	4.2%	0.8%	0.4%	0%	1%	1.9%	1%	0.4%	2.7%
	Chic Brodie	5.2%	6.5%	10.3%	4.7%	3.4%	0%	50.4%	11.2%	3%	5.2%
	Andrew Bryden	5.4%	7.6%	10.3%	6.5%	3.2%	27%	0%	24.3%	4.3%	11.4%
	David John Ramsay	12.2%	11.7%	12.8%	3.3%	10.6%	14.4%	18.9%	0%	6.7%	9.4%
	Deirdre Kennedy	17.7%	35.4%	6.2%	4.4%	3.5%	2.7%	13.3%	7.1%	0%	9.7%

This report was generated by stv.vote and may be reproduced under CC-BY. Learn more about stv.vote.