stv.vote // Highland, Scotland Nairn and Cawdor

The Highland, Scotland May 2022 was held on May 5, 2022. 4 seats were filled using Single Transferable Vote from 8 candidates over 6 rounds.

In STV, candidates who reach the quota (1,032 votes) are elected. Surplus votes above the quota are transferred to voters' next preferences. When no candidate reaches the quota, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and their votes are transferred.

Elected candidates:

  1. Paul Oldham
  2. Laurie Fraser
  3. Michael Green
  4. Barbara Babs Jarvie

Votes needed to win: 1,032 votes 5,1564+1+1\left\lfloor \frac{5,156}{4 + 1} \right\rfloor + 1

Votes needed to win: 1,032Laurie FraserElected in round 1Paul OldhamElected in round 1Michael GreenElected in round 4Barbara Babs JarvieElected in round 7Kevin James ReidEliminated in round 6Kevin BrooksEliminated in round 5Marjory SmithEliminated in round 3Cal MacleodEliminated in round 2

STV Rounds

This Sankey diagram shows the votes of each remaining candidate at each round, as well as the breakdown of votes transferred when each candidate was elected (surplus transfers) or eliminated.

Note that the tabulation (but not the winner) may differ from the official count. You can read more about why this is.

Round 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Paul OldhamLaurie FraserMichael GreenBarbara Babs JarvieKevin James ReidKevin BrooksMarjory SmithCal MacleodExhausted27.2%23.6%16.6%16.2%10.5%20%20%19.4%17.5%13.8%20%20%19.6%17.6%13.9%20%20%20.5%17.7%14.3%6%20%20%20%17.9%14.4%6.2%20%20%20%18.7%16.6%Paul OldhamLaurie FraserMichael GreenBarbara Babs JarvieKevin James ReidExhausted

Candidate Clustering

This visualization shows candidates positioned based on second-choice transfers. Candidates whose voters frequently rank each other appear closer together, forming natural "clusters" or voting blocs.

Distance is based on the First Alternate table below — if voters who rank candidate A first often rank candidate B second (and vice versa), they'll appear close together. In STV, proportional representation means winners should be distributed across different clusters, representing diverse voter preferences.

Circle size indicates first-round vote share. Green circles are elected candidates. Hover over candidates to see their top second-choice transfers.

BrooksFraserGreenJarvieMacleodOldhamReidSmithLegendElectedNot elected

Pairwise Preferences

For every pair of candidates, this table shows the fraction of voters who preferred one to the other. A preference means that either a voter ranks a candidate ahead of the other, or ranks one candidate but does not list the other. Ballots which rank neither candidate are not counted towards the percent counts.

Note: In multi-seat STV elections, pairwise preferences show overall voter sentiment but don't directly determine outcomes, since votes transfer through multiple elimination and surplus rounds.

Less-preferred Candidate
Preferred Candidate
Paul Oldham
Laurie Fraser
Barbara Babs Jarvie
Michael Green
Kevin James Reid
Kevin Brooks
Marjory Smith
Cal Macleod
Paul Oldham0%39.3%56.3%42.5%53.8%57.3%88.9%84.4%
Laurie Fraser60.7%0%71.6%60.3%67.1%78.7%87.5%92.9%
Barbara Babs Jarvie43.7%28.4%0%32.5%42.9%47.5%71.1%79.4%
Michael Green57.5%39.7%67.5%0%63.1%71.5%85.6%90.5%
Kevin James Reid46.2%32.9%57.1%36.9%0%55.4%80.8%86.2%
Kevin Brooks42.7%21.3%52.5%28.5%44.6%0%78.3%85.3%
Marjory Smith11.1%12.5%28.9%14.4%19.2%21.7%0%57.7%
Cal Macleod15.6%7.1%20.6%9.5%13.8%14.7%42.3%0%

First Alternate

For every pair of candidates, this table shows the fraction of voters who ranked one candidate first ranked the other candidate second.

Second Choice
First Choice
Paul Oldham
Laurie Fraser
Barbara Babs Jarvie
Michael Green
Kevin James Reid
Kevin Brooks
Marjory Smith
Cal Macleod
Exhausted
Paul Oldham0%18.7%1%12.7%16.9%7.3%16.6%2.5%24.3%
Laurie Fraser9.5%0%11.3%45.3%10%11.6%0.7%0.8%10.9%
Barbara Babs Jarvie1%30%0%17.1%21.3%5.7%0%5.3%19.6%
Michael Green10.4%46.2%9.1%0%13.8%10%0.8%1.1%8.6%
Kevin James Reid11.7%25.2%12.4%19.4%0%10.7%1.5%1.3%17.8%
Kevin Brooks13.5%32.8%7.8%18.2%13.5%0%1%1.6%11.5%
Marjory Smith45.5%13%2.6%9.1%5.2%7.8%0%3.9%13%
Cal Macleod7.9%31.6%7.9%13.2%13.2%13.2%5.3%0%7.9%

This report was generated by stv.vote and may be reproduced under CC-BY. Learn more about stv.vote.

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